Pax Romana Capital

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The Final Portfolio Review (pt. 3)

Okay, another portfolio review, and another new style for the website. Reception was generally positive, I feel, for the last style, but I was not really vibing with it. We will try this bad boy out, and if you guys fw it, we will keep it. Now, onto the review.

I meant to include these final positions in part two, but I got a little chatty about Microsoft and Block (800 words), so I had to cut it short. Let us begin with our first position. Please welcome TQQQ.

TQQQ is a devious holding, and I love it. I will run over a quick TQQQ explanation for those unaware of this amazing creation. The QQQ is an ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 100, the 100 largest non-financial companies on the Nasdaq. TQQQ is a triple-levered ETF that tracks the QQQ. If the Nasdaq 100 goes up 1%, QQQ goes up 1%, and TQQQ goes up 3%. If the Nasdaq 100 goes down 3%, QQQ goes down 3%, and TQQQ goes down 9%. Triple-leverage is the most allowed for an ETF, which is garbage. I wish there was a tenQQQ, something I would gladly invest in.

A lot of people see the TQQQ as the quintessential, “I just got a stimulus check, and I spend all day on Wall Street Bets, so I will put money in this” play, but TQQQ is so much more. TQQQ offers diversification in technology, great gains, and the most exposure you can find without diving headfirst into options in the market. My thesis on the position is this: “I believe in technology, and I believe that technology companies will continue to compound upon their gains, particularly those at the top. Because I believe in tech companies, and I wholeheartedly agree that their value will continue to appreciate, I should try and get as levered as possible, and I should get as much exposure as possible to technology.” Simply put, I think technology stocks will go up over the next decade, so it makes more sense to get 3x that growth than 1x that growth. And yes, it can be quite the ride. At one point in this TQQQ journey, I was down 30%+ on the position, and at one point in this TQQQ journey, I was up 90%. I have found somewhere in the middle now.

I am up 40% on TQQQ, and it makes up about 11% of my portfolio. I paid a price of $51. Now in terms of recommending this as a buy to my precious and highly-valued Pax Romana Capital readers, I do not know. Obviously, I believe in TQQQ because it makes up 11% of my portfolio, but it is also extremely risky. In March 2020, the Nasdaq dropped 12% in one day. That is a 36% loss on TQQQ. However, and I know there are mitigating factors, if you had held TQQQ for the entirety of 2020, your money would have increased by two-and-a-half-fold. You should invest in TQQQ if you believe in technology. But if you invest, you should not even touch that sell button for years. It is all too easy to get scared and emotional and sell out. When TQQQ marched back from down 35% in my portfolio, I sold. I wanted off the ride and I missed out on great gains over the following month. That drove me insane, so I bought more and I have not looked back.

ServiceNow, what an interesting company. ServiceNow is a tough company to explain, which is why it can take you a long time to figure out what they actually do. Here is the Henry (me) explanation: ServiceNow is a software company that makes software that automates and streamlines other software. ServiceNow is a commercial-oriented business, meaning it sells software to companies. With this software, ServiceNow automates everything a company does. Also, according to a Reddit post from mrKennyBones, “ServiceNow has a data flow engine that is truly remarkable, fast and flexible. And ServiceNow models everything according to industry standards.”

Seriously, whatever you look up will be so jargon-laced, that it sounds like this company is a worthless, internet bubble-era company, but they are not.

What excites me about ServiceNow, in particular, is their use of AI. I am a major believer in AI, and I think particularly in data utilization, ServiceNow will be amazing. Translation: ServiceNow will/is use/using rapidly improving AI to show tangible data to their customers, particularly in business sales. ServiceNow is more than an AI play, though. Their leadership is amazing, and the business is super sticky. It takes forever, years, to transition and train everyone in your company away from ServiceNow and to a competitor like Salesforce or Zendesk.

Bill McDermott is their CEO, and he both wears cool sunglasses and obviously knows what he is talking about. I believe in his ability to lead this company, which is more than crucial for me to invest with him.

I bought ServiceNow a little less than a month ago, and in that time, ServiceNow is up 12%. ServiceNow makes up about 10% of my portfolio, and I bought it for $833. I would recommend a buy on ServiceNow at pretty much any valuation, any price, any p/e ratio.

I am a believer in both TQQQ and ServiceNow. TQQQ seems riskier, but in the long run, TQQQ is a safer play than most, if not all, companies, tech in particular. ServiceNow is a spectacular company filled with spectacular people, and I am always excited to invest in those.