Is It Actually Happening?
Ahhhh yes, it is that time of the year again. For the past three to five years, random research firms have published reports proclaiming a recession is coming in the new year. The go-to line used to be, “Because of rising global volatility and uncontrollable actions by foreign governments, we believe the US economy will tip into a recession.” Now, the go-to line is, “Wahhhhhhh, I am so scared because of interest rates; somebody give attention to me as I boldly proclaim that interest rates will be bad for the economy; nobody is paying attention, let me make up a number to throw on a headline.” We got another stellar report from the legends over at BCA Research, a Canadian (bleh) investment research fund. Guess what they have to say?
Before I start railing against BCA, I should go through their complicated ownership tree. BCA is owned by Fantfoot Limited, a company I could find nothing about; they do not even have a website (so I guess a shell company.) Anyways, Fantfoot is in turn owned by a company called Delinian Holdings Limited a company where all of the information about “our business” is a completely useless AI-generated blurb “Our businesses deliver highly targeted data, research, insights, and connections, along with profiling and predictive analytics.” Blah blah blah, all of that was garbage.
Delinian Holdings Limited is in turn owned by Becketts Bidco Limited which is, and I am quoting here, “a newly formed company by funds managed by Astorg and Epiris.” Who are those guys? Well, Astorg is a private equity firm where their main thing isn't making money, it's listening; "Uncovering value through the art of listening." Epiris buys up companies going bankrupt and flips them, they are also British (double bleh.) Anyways, Becketts Bidco Limited is in turn owned by Maggotts Midco Limited, a holdings company. Also, a company that holds an awful name. I am sure there are more holdings companies in the web of holdings companies, but that was as many as I had the patience to find.
I do not tell you this to bore you, just to highlight that this “research” firm is subservient to a conglomerate which is owned by a holdings company, owned by a holdings company, owned by a company recently formed by two hedge funds with made-up names, and owned by a holdings company owned surely by more holdings companies.
So, BCA’s opinion in my opinion does not hold much weight. It especially does not hold weight because it is garbage. Basically what BCA is saying is that “interest rate bad economy bad.” While that is not entirely off the mark, "research" firms have been saying garbage like that for the past 24 months. If you turn the clock back just twelve months you could find 1000 articles about the inevitable recession in 2023. They do make the caveat that The Fed could avoid being doomed to this fate by lowering interest rates, but make sure to also say (so they get their name in the headline) that avoiding a recession is still nearly impossible.
Garbage like this is so frustrating for me. Congrats, you fear-mongered hard enough that you got your crappy research firm into Business Insider; I hope it is worth it that you just scared the public school teacher of 25 years that they will lose all they have worked for over the past two and a half decades. What is most frustrating for me is that when they are wrong (and they will be) nobody will remember or care. Nobody will remember that this “research” firm was painfully wrong when they make another sucky prediction in six months.
I do not understand how such talentless hacks can look themselves in the mirror.