Pax Romana Capital

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I Am The Smartest Person Ever

Disney stock was up big today. Now, this is not a permanent victory lap, merely The Battle of the Five Armies to the Siege of Gondor. There will be many challenges to come, but everything about today was encouraging.

Bob Iger during his chat to CNBC mentioned again and again the plan to make Disney+ profitable. I believe a Disney+ that is more expensive but a necessity to a massive group of consumers is an excellent business model. I also believe as a whole, streaming is still a good business. I have wavered a little on that point, but I believe Netflix has shown that streaming can be something great. It will not be a great business model for everyone Paramount will go down for sure, but I think Disney+ can be amazing.

More encouraging news came in that Disney is merging Hulu into its other services. Buying out Comcast in September was a costly but crucial step in Disney’s new life. Bob Iger continually mentioned that he was looking to combine Disney, Hulu, and ESPN into one cable-like (although he did not dare say the C-word) structure. While I did see some pushback from investors whose opinions I value, I believe creating a cable-like bundle would be great. Frankly, the cable model was excellent. Everyone won, the studios, the writers and actors, and the consumers won. Until the cable companies got greedy and left a chink in their armor, everyone was doing great, and cable bundles were cash cows. Seeing Disney construct a new cable bundle that they run and operate sounds like an excellent plan to me.

Disney also appointed a new CFO, Hugh Johnston. Hugh Johnston is great for a couple of reasons, first, the name Hugh Johnston sounds like a Bart Simpson prank call name, and also he is just great at his job. People like Hugh are why you buy into a company. He is an experienced CFO who worked at Pepsi as CFO for the past 13 years. A period in which they managed the always-changing snack and beverage industry excellently, and also managed our old friend Nelson Peltz. When Nelson was doing his thing over at Pepsi-raising cane, general chaos-Pepsi did exactly what you are supposed to do when you have an activist investor, get better. Hugh Johnston is the type of guy you get because he believes in the long-term project and he was offered a dump truck of money.

One more thing on Hugh, I think his dealmaking ability is going to need to be used well. Pepsi is famous for being a conglomerate of food and drink. Their purchasing has not slowed down in the past decade and a half. Make no mistake, while today was a good sign, more work still needs to be done, and deals will have to be made: acquisitions, ESPN needs so much, possible buyouts of smaller streaming services. Hugh will have much on his plate, but this is a veteran CFO, and I believe he is the right man.

Finally, to harp one more time on Bobby’s chat with CNBC, he mentioned cost-cutting so many times. Those words “cost-cutting” are exactly what I want to hear. Disney became bloated and slow under Chapek, now they are becoming leaner and faster under Iger. I mean, Disney’s target for cost-cutting is $7.5 billion, that is so much money. Seven and a half billion dollars would about cover what it cost them to buy out Hulu from Comcast. All the while they shaved $1,000,000,000 off of their losses for streaming. Bobby is crushing it.

My final thoughts are predictable, Disney is on the right track. I know it feels wrong to buy the day after a 7% jump, so you should not. The stock will be flat the day after this jump (is trading paused tomorrow?) and will fall two days after this jump. However, there is still room on this bandwagon. Disney is pointing in the right direction, profits are going up, Bob is steering us towards Heaven, the right people are showing up, and we are finally going to the Promise Land. It has genuinely been extremely difficult to hold onto Disney, but I promise this ride is worth it. You will be kicking yourself in a year when the stock is up 40%. HOP ON THE TRAIN; I AM DRIVING.