Recently we have had a bit of a rally. This rally did not come from any real changes in the markets, but simply because the markets had become too weighed down and they were due for a bounce. Now, tomorrow or Monday, the markets are going to fall again. Let me tell you why this is going to happen and why you once again should not care if you are doing this right.

First of all, the markets are going to fall again because nothing has changed. While this rally is nice, and I did time it pretty well (I bought TQQQ on Tuesday morning) nothing has changed. Sure, The Fed cooled it for another month on raising rates, but everyone and their mother knows they will have to raise one more time. Jamie “Epstein” Dimon told the media recently that he thinks another 75-bps raise is in order. While I do not think it will be that high, there will be another bump in interest rates.

Iran is still freaking out, and I do not trust those fellas over there in Tehran to take a chill pill. Chances are high that this regime which has experienced quite a bit of pressure from its civilian population recently will use this Israel thing as a distraction. I do not think they will declare war or anything, and I hope cooler heads prevail, but it would not be the first time an authoritarian regime loses it because of internal strife.

General election cycles typically harm the markets slightly because of the uncertainty, and there is about to be so much uncertainty. Donald “Epstein” Trump is currently quadruply indicted, getting crazier by the second, and is about to be given the biggest platform in the world by national media. It is genuinely impossible to know what will come out of his mouth.

On the other side of the political spectrum is liberals who will be getting angrier and angrier with every word that comes out of Trump’s mouth. As part of this backlash, voters will push for more intense policies. Policies that I am sure Wall Street will love (not).

On top of allllll of this is the national debt. For the past decade, borrowing has been incredibly cheap, and now it is not. It is possible that the treasury cannot sell its instruments, and then the government will have to cut spending (never happening) or raise taxes. Either scenario will cause much unrest.

I named the first couple of problems that came to mind, but there are so many more. Yet, I still love the market, here is why.

First of all, you are buying into companies that are run well, have strong fundamentals, and are positioned well, they should fare better than the overall market. You need to be in companies that you genuinely believe in, if you are not, then you should be worried.

Second, and more importantly, The Fed is about to let the market go. It will be gentle, but there will be a small cut at the beginning of 2024, and that will be it. The Fed will gently, trying not to restart inflation, let go a little of the economy. The lesson repeated the most is “Never fight The Fed.” If The Fed is encouraging growth, and they will, you need to be there to pounce, and that means getting in now or soon. Once it starts rolling it will be too late for you to buy in. Do not fight The Fed.

You should not be buying right now, that is not what I mean, because prices are about to fall again. However, in a week when prices are down, you should take the opportunity to shore up your positions. Good luck :).