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Why Won’t Disney Make Me Money? A Disney Earnings Review

I used to be a super big Disney fan. I know I’ve told this story a thousand times, but I’ll tell it again. Disney was the first stock I researched and bought independently. It was the first stock that my grandfather did not hold that I bought. I bought around $115 and watched the price grow to about $190. Then, the bottom of the stock fell out, and the price tumbled and tumbled down to less than $85. I held the entire time, and once the stock got below $100, I started buying more. Disney taught me many lessons, and when the stock trended upwards from $85-ish to $125 this year, I felt vindicated. I thought the stock was turning a page. That said, I did sell off a portion of my position, and the stock went from about 19% of my portfolio to 14%.

Slowly but surely, Disney disappointed me again. Looking at the stock YTD is interesting. The graph is like an upside-down parabola, which is frustrating. The stock is back down to the mid-$80s, and we are exactly where we were one year ago, which is insane to me because the company is in a position A MILLION TIMES BETTER THAN IT WAS BEFORE. Anyway, it’s time to review these earnings, and I will explain to you why I am not selling anything. I will be nuked on this hill before I retreat.

Disney’s streaming services just registered a profit, which is GREAT news. Just a year and a half ago, Disney’s streaming unit was losing $1.5 billion dollars per quarter. Now, Disney is making $47 million on $6.4 of revenue. This is mostly symbolic obviously. The difference between losing $3 million and making $47 million for a company of Disney’s size is negligible, but I don’t care. The symbol is still valuable. This company has turned so much around under Bob Iger.

What investors seem to be freaking out about is Disney’s experiences unit, which is the cruises, videogames licensing, and resorts, seeing its operating income fall 3.3% to $2.22 billion, even while revenue increased. This, frankly, is not that big of a deal. The experiences unit is very helpful, and it is definitely a moat that Disney has dug well, but it is a backup option, a nice to have. Investors also seemed to be worried about a more pessimistic forecast from Disney on its theme parks. Disney expects operating income to fall by 4-6% next quarter on softer consumer demand. This softening consumer demand is not something Disney can avoid.

Money is getting a bit tighter here in America, with unemployment ticking up, the Chinese economy is really struggling, so Chinese consumers are weaker, and the Paris Olympics are taking people away from Paris Disneyland, which pulled in about $3 billion in revenue last year, despite strikes.

Back to positive news. EPS is forecasted to grow from 25% to 30%, which shows a strengthening company, profitability will only continue to grow in the streaming division (knock on wood), and subscribers will also continue to grow as Disney begins restarting their Marvel and Star Wars production. Need I mention that Disney made an animated movie that pulled in $1.6 billion this year? Inside Out 2 is the world’s highest-grossing animated movie, ever, supplanting Frozen 2, another Disney movie. Disney’s Deadpool movie hasn’t even been counted, and the Moana movie at the end of the year will make over $1.3 billion, and you can quote me on that.

I still feel extremely optimistic about Disney. They have weathered the most significant storms that investors were worried about, and I only see an optimistic path forward. Disney is as cheap as it will be for the next decade, so if you aren’t in the stock yet, I would get into it. Although, this company has tricked me before, so stay wary.