I have had the pain and pleasure of owning Disney stock for four years. I bought it at 117$ and have dollar-cost averaged that down to 111$. I have held them up to $180 and down to 85$. Disney has taught me many lessons; even though I’ve lost money on them, I still wouldn’t change anything. I’ve learned all my lessons and attempted to remove emotion from the equation, and I think they’re a buy. I believe as of right now, Disney is such a bargain it’s not even funny.

Off the bat, let’s do a quick SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis. What are Disney’s strengths? Well, first of all, they have immense IP (intellectual property) they could make spinoffs and sequels that people would watch until I’m cold in the ground. They have theme parks and cruise lines that are extremely underrated when it comes to making a profit, and they just make money. Even though you hear all about their shortcomings, day in and day out revenue continues to grow. For example, at their last earnings call, they reported that revenue had grown 13% and 10% for the past quarter and six months. This is occurring while you hear about how bad their movies are and how they’ve fallen off. Revenue grew while subscriptions for Disney+ fell, they are so much more diversified than many people think. Their international parks continue to do well with Hong Kong, Shangai, and Paris being the best of the best. Disney is diversified and prepared for growth.

Weaknesses, and there are many. First of all, streaming is a business in which making a profit is honestly pretty difficult. Especially at the rate each streaming service is spending on creating new material, making a profit has proven nearly impossible. Disney has lost subscribers for their streaming service Disney+ and I honestly don’t see a way for them to turn this around without spending a lot of money. Merchandise sold decreased for all of their largest IP, while it is true that they have near limitless IP I don’t know how much longer people will keep watching. I mean, come on, Toy Story 5?? Consumer product sales decreased which is one of the most telling signs that people are losing focus. Parks and cruises are nice and all, but that’s not what you’re buying when you buy Disney. That’s a nice distraction, not the moneymaker. They’re have even been rumors of Disney being bought, I don’t know if those are substantial, but I wouldn’t discount it. An Amazon-Disney buyout or an Apple-Disney buyout might be in the cards. I hope this storied company can turn it around, but they have dug themselves quite a hole. Fortunately, there are some opportunities.

Disney is nowhere near out of options. Disney has a couple of opportunities that have been given to them. First of all, they could finalize their buyout of Comcast and fully own Hulu. Then, they could roll them (ESPN+, Disney+, and Hulu) all into one streaming service. That, combined with the content factories they already have up and running would create a formidable service. Buy out a couple of smaller streaming services like Paramount and they’re back on top. Another option that is being floated right now is the sale of ABC. While still profitable, and still one of the most recognized names in television the fall of cable has occurred. ABC just isn’t that large of a factor anymore in the existence of Disney. Extra cash on hand from that sale could give Disney the firepower they need to sort of do whatever they want. Or, the final nuclear option is to merge with one of the other big three in streaming. They could attempt a takeover or a merger with Netflix or Warner Bros. and roll the dice from there. A final, final option is inconceivable and will never happen. Disney retreats from streaming into the recesses of cruise ships and parks. They sell out their stake in Hulu, and auction off ESPN. They quit all expansion and just roll with the IP they have now: Pixar, Marvel, and Star Wars. Then they buy out the cruise industry and become basically, a new business. This will not happen, however. These people know what they’re doing though, and my confidence in the Disney decision-making has been restored since Iger took over again. Now, they do still have some threats on the horizon.

The most obvious threat is clear: competition. They really may lose to Max or Netflix and just be sold off. I don’t think that will happen, but as of right now Max has better content (in my and most people’s opinion) and Netflix is the only streaming service to have made a profit. Hopefully, Disney turns that around, but the chance of them just getting bullied out is apparent. Another threat is Ron Desantis. I don’t think anything of him and I’m not sure he’s much longer for the political world, but for some reason, he has it out for Disney. I don’t think he can or will do anything, but he’s still there. The biggest threat I think is Bob Iger. He has been a great leader for Disney and I think he will continue to be for the next couple of years he’s under contract, but the man just can’t pick a successor and he’s getting up there. The man is 72 and has routinely throughout the past decade or so picked a successor and then changed his mind. Last time he straight-up retired and then had to come back when the next man up fell on his face. I believe in him, and his ability to get Disney through a very tough time, but I don’t believe in the next guy’s ability to lead Disney.