Pax Romana Capital

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Disney Turnaround

I have talked quite a bit about Disney (DIS) since I started this page. On the many stock-focused message boards and subreddits I am a part of, people have grown bored of Disney. They have voiced concerns that Disney is being focused too much and that there are so many different buying options that will not give you a headache. They are not necessarily wrong, but the best buying opportunities happen in this exact scenario, to reject an opportunity like this because of fear, is the antithesis of what you should be trying to do in the market.

Every time you look at a graph of some kind that charts the performance of a stock or index, and you see that big dip, you ask yourself why did I not buy? You tell yourself it was so obvious, and that if you are ever presented with a chance like that, you will be sure to jump. This is that chance, this is the moment where you have to be bold.

Disney is a proven company that had leadership failings at a very crucial time. They no longer have those lackings. When Disney sells ABC, and the rest of their legacy companies to whoever, their stock will shoot up. It will be a completely different ball game, the repositioning that selling ABC+Nat Geo+FX provides Disney is immense. By the time they have sold off the rest of their legacy cable companies, it will be too late to buy. Now is the time to strike.

In the short term, you will not get your head handed to you (knock on wood.) The support Disney has at $80 is immense, and realistically, Disney has hit rock bottom. I would be willing to bet my life that there is very little news that could come out that would drive Disney down. Not to make the mistake of counting my hens, but frankly, Disney shareholders have absorbed quite a bit, I am not sure there is much left that they do not already know, or expect. Disney is not going to get lower than $80, and now is the time to strike.

What is especially great about Disney, and specifically Bob Iger is that you do not have to fully envision what they can or will do. Not that I think he is the angel sent down from Heaven that he portrays himself as, but I do think he is one of the best leaders a person could ask to direct a Fortune 500 company. I would feel confident placing my money in Iger if he was running Tesla or if he was running Nucor. I think Bob Iger has a distinct vision for what Disney can be. I think Bob Iger will lead Disney out of the fog, and into a far better position. Granted, it can be very scary to place your money blindly in a man, solely based on the trust of his leadership. However, you have to look at the fundamentals.

Disney is a historically great company. Disney has an endless supply of Intellectual Property from which to draw. Disney has parks and cruises to use as reserves. Disney has a strong foothold in the world of streaming, from which it can grow if managed correctly. Disney has Bob Iger, and Bob Iger has an excellent mind.

Now, as soon as Bob Iger retires, I am out. He has proven that he cannot pick a successor, and I have lost too much money to trust Disney without Bob Iger. Things can change, but to reiterate, you are almost wholly betting on Bob Iger when you bet on Disney.