Pax Romana Capital

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JPOW Won’t Stop

First of all, inflation is the primary enemy of any economy. Hiding behind all of the blades of grass of every social welfare act is inflation. Tax cut=inflation. Raise the minimum wage=inflation. Inflation is the enemy of all gains, it doesn’t matter if the stock market is gaining 10% every year if inflation is 11%. Eventually, if inflation is allowed to run unchecked the country will collapse. Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and pre-Third Reich Germany are all examples of inflation being the true enemy. The Fed chairman is rewarded for keeping inflation low. Despite being the Fed Chair for the year preceding and then during the worst economic failure since the Great Depression Ben Bernanke was given a Nobel Prize and his eight-year career is widely seen as a success because he KEPT INFLATION LOW. Although to be fair, I could keep inflation low if nobody had any money because they had all lost their jobs. Outside of self-interest it just makes sense to kill inflation in the cradle. For some reason, these bozos over the past decade have forgotten about inflation. Many thought that inflation was dead due to international economic growth from 2010-2021. Unfortunately, these ding-dongs who graduated from Harvard, Duke, and Princeton have forgotten that IF YOU PRINT MORE MONEY IT IS WORTH LESS. The Fed, the chair of the EU, everyone let inflation get out of control, because they got so used to no economic bumps. They got nervous after COVID, panicked, and slashed rates to zero because they were terrified about losing their jobs. Now they are facing the consequences. Unfortunately despite my tirade, they were absolutely right to do everything they did. The economy needed to get back on track and the risk of inflation was well worth it. What genuinely makes me mad, what really butters my biscuits is the hedge fund managers who go on CNBC and say stuff like “The Fed has to slash rates, please slash, please, please, please”-Cathie Wood (who makes my meager gains look like Medallion.) I know these people are just acting out of self-interest, but they just won’t accept that you should never never never never ever fight The Fed. The Fed doesn’t care that Cathie Woods fund lost 70% of its value in a year, they just don’t care. What they care about is inflation. So, now the question becomes… how to work with the Fed? It’s actually pretty simple, don’t try and read between the lines, don’t try and pick up on hidden messages, just accept that the Fed is trying to kill growth by raising rates. Now ask yourself, what goes up in value when the Fed raises rates? If you said treasury bonds, you would be correct. I know it’s boring, and I know it lacks creativity, but just do it, please. They’re up to 5%, just take the gain (a large one compared to if you tracked SPY.) If you get some treasury bonds I’ll let you get back in. Once JPOW signals, and actually signals not through some secret code only you understand. Once the Fed cuts rates or JPOW announces that inflation has been handled, then you can buy. Until then, don’t be a Cathie, because they just don’t care. Good luck.