When we started this year off, the market was on a heater (heater, I hardly know her); the market was cooking, I was cooking, and good feelings abounded. Now, the Nasdaq is down 5.5% this week, meaning I am down 16.5% on my humble TQQQ position. Good feelings are no longer abounding, and optimism is no longer powering us through these geopolitical storms.

First, I should say that this does not matter. Watching your portfolio tick down day after day, tugging your self-esteem along with it, does not feel delightful, but day-to-day, even week-to-week movements like these matter not. If you believe in what you are invested in, and you do, unless you are doing it wrong, then you should be able to stay strong. Now, this is not an invitation to be over-aggressive and foolhardy, more advice to not be over-emotional with your money.

Okay, now I am going to talk about why this is happening, why this is going to continue to happen, and why you should be excited.

First, this is happening because of a couple of crosswind problems. At the beginning of the year, optimism was the name of the game, and that was enough to carry us through the humanitarian disaster in Gaza, a worsening China, inflation that was not going away, etc., but the market kept chugging upwards. Unfortunately, the market has never stood still, and the market’s mood is always rebelling against itself.

Optimism went out of fashion as good ole’ Jeromey found out that inflation was going to be more difficult to erase than he and many others (including me) previously believed. Combined with a weird Israel-Iran situation, it felt like the market is letting out a breath right now, resetting expectations. This is a correction, and that is all this is. The market went up too much too quickly, and we are returning to the mean, the moving average. Do not panic.

Unfortunately, this correction may prolong itself, as inflation continues to prevail, and as the American climate gets more panicky. I have not mentioned this yet, but I believe a big factor for the rest of the year will be the campaigns of Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Generally, in presidential cycles, markets finish at basically average gains. But I think this presidential campaign is going to be so frenzied that it will affect the general mood of America. I will not bring my politics into this article, but I will say that Americans are about to experience a very chaotic and politically destructive presidential cycle, and often, when Americans feel really bad about the state of the country, they change the way their money is managed.

We may see a basically flat market for the last three or four months of the year. In terms of the current market, the last three/four months of the year is an age away, but just keep an eye out for the depression level of the average American. Americans are on the edge right now and that typically affects how they invest their money.

Also, I lied, Donald Trump sucks and so do you if you vote for him.

Finally, here is why you should be excited. Any opportunity the market hands you to buy is a blessing. This is the lowest Apple has been in 52 weeks, QQQ keeps falling and should be glad. Buying great companies at a discount is an absolute gift. If you are scared, you shouldn’t be. If you think Apple is going to be a great company over the next 10 years, you should be snapping up as many shares as you can afford when it drops this far. My only problem is catching the falling knife. I’d love to buy more Apple, Block, and TQQQ, but I want it to fall more. They always say that you can’t time the market, but I think I am going to try to. The best-case scenario is that Apple is at $155 in a week’s time, but I don’t think that is going to happen. If I had to guess, the market is going to do that thing where we get that short rebound because investors sense a buying opportunity, then those waiting to sell do the deed, stock falls even more, and I buy. That is the actual best-case scenario.

I’ll tell you if it works out.

To summarize, do not panic, even if the market keeps going down. Either buy great companies at a discount now or be brave (or stupid) and wait a week or two for a better buying opportunity.