Pax Romana Capital

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Pt. 3 of You Making A Lot of Money…Maybe

This may be the last of my recommendations for the coming year, but if I see any big buys on the market, I will write about it.

I feel like a traitor writing this as a longtime Disney disciple, but Netflix (NFLX) is a buy. Netflix over the past couple of years, has completely regained the upper hand in streaming. So completely have they retaken the high ground that Disney and Max have begun licensing some of their shows on Netflix again, something that would have been unheard of three years ago. Both of those companies need cash, and Netflix is there to give it to them. In short, Netflix owns streaming, and they will continue to for years to come.

To defend my Disney position that I have shilled relentlessly, there is room enough in streaming for more than one, and it has to be remembered that Disney is not Netflix, and Netflix is not Disney. Disney is a far more diversified company with a completely different streaming service; a service that they used to attempt to make Netflix but fortunately have now recognized the impossibility of accomplishing that feat.

Anyways, Netflix is a buy. Currently, at $492, Netflix is up 65%+ this year but remains a buy for one major reason and a couple of smaller but important reasons. The major reason is that Netflix is expanding into sports and I believe they will completely conquer it. First of all, Netflix is one of the most popular services in the world with 250 million paid subscribers. If they were to venture into sports, any league or event would want them. Second, Netflix has the cash to make it happen. As I mentioned previously, all these other streaming giants have had to license to Netflix recently because they are strapped for cash. Shows that were mediocre on Max became hits on Netflix. Third, and this runs with the second, Netflix has so much more cash than their competitors, who they will be bidding against. Traditional sports broadcasters like CBS, ESPN, etc. will struggle to beat Netflix out in every sport, and all Netflix needs is one.

Now, you may be asking, “Why do sports matter that much?” The answer is simple, everyone watches them. Maybe half of your family was watching Succession or half of your family watched Game of Thrones but everyone in your family will watch a sports event in a year. If not, you are a hippy and the NFL is coming for you. Sports make up 40% of all television watched per year. If you were to combine that with Netflix, the most popular service in the world, on which 100 BILLION HOURS were watched in the FIRST HALF of this year, you have a money machine. The sports market is growing quickly with a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 21%. On top of that, sports have a hyper-dedicated fanbase that no show possesses; 20% of men reported watching sports every day, and the sports base is balanced across age groups with 30% of the under-30 crowd subscribed to multiple streaming services. So, to summarize, sports are the most popular form of entertainment that we as humans have been able to create, and whoever controls the sports rakes in cash.

Now, “sports” is a little bit of a vague word, I could mean anything from The World Cup to professional bowling. Sports broadcasting only makes up 2.7% of all TV, and that is including the nothing sports that are streamed: X-Games, surfing, bowling, cornhole, etc. So, major contracts with major organizations like the PGA, Premier League, NFL, NBA, and others are attainable, espescially when you remember that the companies that own those rights do not have the cash to get in a bidding war, Peacock for example.

If Netflix were to combine its dedicated hundreds of millions of subscribers with exponentially popular events like The World Cup, both groups would see insane growth and both would see their bottom lines grow as well.

Now, while Netflix does appear to be expanding into sports, having recently hosted a live sports event for the first time, it could fall apart. We have already seen how fickle the streaming business is, and it could be possible that none of this works out. Here are some other reasons you should own Netflix stock.

Netflix's leadership is impressive. The leadership led Netflix through the storm of years of turmoil about streaming. They withstood multiple attacks in a changing landscape and Netflix and its shareholders have come out of it all with larger wallets.

The ad-supported tier Netflix recently added is the future. Netflix is becoming a better cable bundle—a product with more profits for everyone than any other product in the history of humanity. An ad-supported tier is the cable bundle and is the most profitable part of Netflix’s business.

Netflix has beaten its competition. I cannot overstate enough how big of a deal it is that Disney and Max licensed some of their product on Netflix again, that is a recognition of defeat or a recognition that they were never truly fighting each other.

For all of those reasons, I believe Netflix is a buy. Now, I do not own Netflix stock, but I may in the future. I am not trying to time the market, but there are other opportunities I believe to be better for this coming year: SQ, UBER, COST, and TQQQ. However, if the price falls or a buying opportunity presents itself I would not hesitate to jump in.