Pax Romana Capital

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The Fed

Before you continue, I just wanted to apologize for the long wait. My friend bet me 50 dollars I couldn’t drink a gallon of milk in five minutes. I failed, threw up, and have been recovering.

Most people didn’t think they could do it, but it is looking increasingly likely that The Fed will stick their “soft landing.” I was pretty sure they could, but as long as nothing else major happens, The Fed will raise rates one more time and cut in January. Inflation will be back to manageable levels, and markets will charge upwards. Now, or the end of the month, truly might be the peak time to buy. I think the rest of August will be a little softer, but after that, we should be golden. Here are stocks that I think are best positioned for the next 15 months.

Apple stock is fantastic. Every time you see the price you think “It’s a little expensive right now, I’ll wait and buy later.” The only problem is that it is extremely rare that their stock trends downwards. However, the market has handed you an excellent opportunity. APPL is down 8.8% in the past 15 days, ground I believe they will quickly make back up. Their hardware sales (iPhone, Mac, Apple Watch, TVs, Airpods) combined with their subscription sales, which recently surpassed the 1 billion mark, (Apple Music, Apple Card+Apple Pay, iCloud, Apple TV) create an extremely strong base for this company to innovate. Behind the strong leadership of an executive team that rarely makes mistakes, I see an extremely bright future for a company that has outperformed the S&P by 25% YTD.

UPS will perform horribly over the coming 15 months. Unions should not exist, they only arise because companies fail to pay their workers well enough. However, when they do rise and accrue enough power to have a successful strike, I get out of that company. Unions can work very well for both parties involved, but they can also make companies very slow and lethargic. Innovation is key, and if companies become too slow they will die. Yellow for example, was put out of business because of unions. Unions must be created when a company mismanages its workers, but for a publicly traded company like UPS, there will come a day when this will kill them. Not even in the long distant future, profits will be crushed by these pay raises. I was looking at stories earlier today about teamsters believing they didn’t demand enough and were planning on asking for more in the next negotiations. This is genuinely crippling for UPS, do not buy UPS, and if you are already in, you should get out.

Microsoft is a company that has positioned itself well for the future, espescially for the year ahead. Their acquisition of Activision Blizzard was well done, as was their fending-off regulators. It appears they have a jump on Google in generative AI, and could genuinely challenge Google for the first time in a decade. The way they talk about AI, it seems as if they are betting they can lead this next wave of technology. Their cloud computing is still strong, as are their hardware sales. Microsoft just has its thumbs in a lot of pies, and they have avoided the Sauron’s Eye of EU tech regulation. Microsoft is well-led and well-positioned.

Disney, I won’t say much because all I’ve been doing for the past month is talking about Disney, but now is the time to buy. You are buying one of the oldest, biggest, and most storied entertainment companies at the lowest price it has been at for a decade. If there were ever a time to buy, it would be now. I had a conversation with a senior VP at one of the top investment management companies, and they are in on Disney. I think it is beyond clear that now is the time, it may be a little turbulent for a minute or two, but now is the time.

The final company is TSM or Taiwanese Semiconductor Manufacturing. I honestly don’t know as much about TSM as I do the other companies, but its mere name gives it value. Semiconductors are needed for the future, computing will only grow. The only problem would be US v. China beef that could wreck the sector. US embargos and Chinese violence could rock this already volatile sector. I don’t have any of this stock, but I might soon. TSM seems to lead the sector, and semiconductor manufacturing is gigantic in Taiwan. The government sees companies like TSM as leverage, and they will do everything in their power to make sure those companies stay strong.