I spent about an hour and a half scouring the Wall Street Journal, CNBC, and various YouTube channels to try and find a topic for today’s article. I sort of couldn’t. Nothing too much is going on right now; that is when it hit me. We are entering the Summer season on Wall Street.

I recently got off of school and have entered the all-hallowed Summer Break. If you did not know, Wall Street follows a similar pattern every summer. During the summer, trading volume generally decreases because, and I know this sounds silly, managers and institutional investors are off on holiday, people are calmer during the Summer, and retail investors are in their rooms less and outdoors more. However, with this decreased volume comes increased volatility, as smaller amounts of money have larger impacts We are entering that period, so with that in mind, here is what is going to happen over the summer.

The biggest moments of the summer are inarguably The Fed meetings. In June and July, the Fed is meeting to discuss cutting rates. And in this, I can admit an error. I believed inflation would fall faster than it has, and I believed The Fed when they said that they would cut rates three times this year. The Fed is still saying that they are going to cut rates three times this year, but they will not. I would be surprised if they cut rates once this year, and that will be borne out in the markets over the summer. When The Fed doesn’t cut rates and then announces that they will only cut rates once or twice this year, the market will fall between 4%-6%.

Another big moment is going to be Nvidia’s earnings in August. People cannot wait for Nvidia to be a bubble, and each quarter they push it off, (like they did once again this quarter) the pressure increases. When Nvidia reports once more in August, the market will hang on to every word, and any move down or hint of headwinds will cause the stock and the wider market to tumble.

Finally, perhaps the biggest moment of the year for me will be the Disney earnings in August. The stock is down about 20% in the past month and a half after shooting up earlier in the year. One excellent quarter where the future was bright saw the market love the company and finally join my optimism. One less optimistic quarter saw the market return to its pessimistic ways, despite my loud protest. This third quarter is a referendum. If all Disney streaming services are not profitable by then, the stock will fall another 15% over the following month. Disney has to start showing genuine progress on this rebuild, or they may stall out on the mountain.

This article is the shortest I have written in months and months, which tracks for the beginning of the summer. This summer will not be laid back by any means, but outside of a couple important days, you can sort of cool your jets.