A Portfolio Reshuffle: Writing About it Caused Me a Mental Breakdown

Okay, this one is probably going to be a little shorter than usual because my body is a wreck right now. I went to a turkey bowl game today that consisted of 30 minutes of touch football before two hours of vigorous soccer. And yes, I scored three goals over two games, so I popped off. That was really tiring, but I still went to a kind of hardcore turkey bowl game with a bunch of college guys an hour later (I’m 17).

It was full-on tackle, which was not great for me since I could only tackle about half of them. On the second play, I caught the ball, turned on my blazing speed, and was literally picked up and thrown. This guy probably had about 60 pounds on me, and I was not able to wriggle out of his grasp. I healed quickly, but we played for another hour-ish, and I was continually tackled with prejudice. My stamina levels are quite depleted, but I am wholly dedicated to Pax Romana Capital, so I have chosen to write something instead of taking a trip to the ER.

Also, there may be more grammatical errors than usual. I’m basically falling asleep in my chair as I write this, but I will stay strong for the Pax Romana Capital Army.

Okay, I changed some things around in my portfolio. Disney has had a significant run-up in the past month and had ballooned to about 17% of my portfolio. Ferrari has gone the other way in the past month, falling behind the pace and had shrunk to about 12% of my portfolio. Maybe it’s just because I wrote an article recently hyping Ferrari up…a lot…., but I thought/think that Ferrari is on a positive track. I saw that I had about 25% gains on my Disney position and about 4% gains on my Ferrari position, so I sold off a bunch of Disney and used that money to buy some Ferrari, moving it up to 16% of my portfolio, and some IonQ, moving it up to 10% of my portfolio.

Disney has moved to 12% of my portfolio, and I think that 12% might even be a bit much. I am a big fan of the company, but there are so many risks. I have a 30% gain right now, and I am feeling the demons of selling dancing around my shoulders, whispering that I should take my profits off this accursed company. I feel like investors are pricing in so much optimism, and I see fewer routes to another 30% in growth. I can tell you what I am not doing. I will not let myself take a loss on this company. I do not care. I have held this stock for five years, and I have been to the all-time highs and the decade-long lows. I refuse to go back to the red. I am at a 30% gain, but if this company drops below a 20% gain for me, I am getting out.

Yes, that statement violates everything key to being a good investor, but I have too much emotion attached to Disney to think rationally, and I can always get back in. Hmmm, I am talking myself into selling, while in a mentally sluggish state.

The second company that I am getting very wary of is Block. I sold out of half of my position to buy IonQ, bringing both companies to 10% of my portfolio, but I feel like the company has reached a precipitous valuation, and it might be time to take the gains.

All I have said so far is not good. Nothing has changed intrinsically about these companies except for the price, so there is no need to sell. However, these higher prices really worry me. It might be time to move on. I DON’T KNOW >:(.

I have written myself into a mental fit, but through this interminable back and forth, I have come to a decision. I will hold Disney, but I will take the gains if the price slips below a 20% gain because this stock has a habit of surging and falling. I will sell Block if my 45% gain slips to 35% or below and nothing changes. There is nothing wrong with taking profits if the stock is falling and has risen to an unsustainable valuation for the intrinsic value of the company; I think.

Wow, that was a process, and I might change my mind again, but first I will sleep.