Pax Romana Capital

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This Is Why You Do Not Trust The ARK Fund

It has been a while since I have hated on the ARK Fund. A combination of factors, including a tech runup, have led Cathie Wood’s ARK Fund to escape much of the public ire that has followed her and her investing. However, while scrolling through the WSJ’s website, I noticed a little headline: Cathie Wood's ARK Adds Reddit Shares. This headline, suffice to say, sent me into a bit of a tizzy.

I use Reddit. While extremely cringe to mention and risky to mention on a website my friends sometimes read, I use Reddit. I am not a Redditor, but sometimes I frequent the website. In my opinion, Reddit is the best out of any social media platform, and I genuinely enjoy how stimulating interaction often is, however, Reddit is an awful stock. Reddit has never made a profit FOR NINETEEN YEARS, EVER. Reddit has never eked out a lucky profit in 73 straight quarters, and I say 73 because they are not making a profit this quarter either. Also, they are paying their CEO $193 MILLION. Are you serious? Can I be the Reddit CEO? I’m sure I could manage to deliver no profit, and I would not mind picking up the $200 million check.

You may be optimistic. You may believe that Reddit could absolutely turn things around and reach profitability, but I do not see how. Reddit is going to have to take steps to become profitable, and anything Reddit does risks intense backlash. If Reddit sells too much data, advertises too much, or makes any significant changes to the platform, unpaid moderators who control all of the content on the platform, could shut down individual groups. For example, the infamous Wall Street Bets SubReddit has over 15 million active users. Those are users upvoting, commenting, and posting every day on Reddit. They only go to Reddit for this group, and the moderator team of seven dudes could shut it down in two clicks. Recently, we saw moderators do this when Reddit changed their API. Basically, Reddit is going to have to take some risks, and if they do, they could watch their users shut down the site.

And after all of that, you have to ask yourself as an investor, how is Reddit going to grow? Snapchat is an objectively awful company. Snapchat has 470 million daily active users. Reddit has 73 million. And if you were a Reddit supporter, you might say “Well, people who use Reddit typically only use Reddit for social media, and 65% of Redditors have household income greater than $75,000, so advertisers will pay a premium to get to Redditors.” EXCEPT THEY WON’T. REDDIT HAS NEVER TURNED A PROFIT, EVER. Reddit has proven not to be a good company, and any advancements they might make could lose their site, so why in Moranis’s name, would CATHIE WOODS INVEST OTHER PEOPLE’S MONEY IN REDDIT?

Reddit is a poor investment. People make predictions too often, and people make bad predictions too often as well, but I will bet you money that in a decade, Reddit will either be completely hollowed out or will no longer exist. Cathie Woods is practically violating her fiduciary responsibility by investing in a company, that is this woefully unprepared for the brave new world it is about to face. Reddit is a ship lost in the storm, already. And Cathie Woods has now attached investor dollars to this sinking ship.