Pax Romana Capital

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Victory Lap on LULU+Portfolio Reposition

Sorry for taking a while, I just finished my stats exam yesterday, which I think I did well on, yippee! Anyway, we are going to talk about two things today, Lululemon stock and a shift in my portfolio.

First, I want to take a victory lap on Lululemon, and if you read my website a lot, you know that I love to take a victory lap every once in a while. At the beginning of the year, or maybe last December, I proclaimed that, in my mind, Lululemon was overbought. I thought there was too much positive momentum for what the stock was, and I recognized that in the fashion industry when a company is on top culturally, you must sell. Not to say that Lululemon is a bad company. Generally, I would say they are a fundamentally strong company, but in fashion, everything is so cyclical, and they were on top, but now they are not. These things move too fast, and I felt like the brand was being eroded. The term “middle-aged, Lululemon-clad, soccer mom” was becoming too widely known. Most of my prediction was luck, to be honest. If I felt super strongly, I would have shorted the company, but I did not; because it was more of an inkling I had rather than a gamble I would bet my life on.

And if you are thinking “The stock is down 41% YTD, now is my time to pounce,” I would warn you that just because the stock has fallen precipitously, does not mean that the stock is done falling, and if the company starts panicking because they are the worst performing stock all year, they could start making short-term moves and/or chopping off valuable people like their chief product officer who just resigned. I would not buy Lululemon, still. It takes a while for fashion companies to rest their brand, which is what Lululemon is going to have to do.

Our second topic is my portfolio, which I have moved around. My portfolio represents the positions that I believe are the best in the world for growth. I added Ferrari to my portfolio and moved some other stuff around.

First, Costco had appreciated to 30% of my portfolio, so I chopped off a little of my position, and I have brought it down to 20%, so my unrealized gain for Costco has gone from about 80% to 60%. I also sold off just a little, teensy, bit of Disney while I was at it. Disney is now 14% of my portfolio instead of 16%/17%. Since Block's stock continues to fall, I have bought more, against my better instincts, so Block is now 11% of my portfolio instead of 9%/10%. Finally, I halved my Berkshire position, so Berkshire now makes up only 5% of my portfolio instead of the 9%/10% it was before. Berkshire runs counter to much of my strategy. It isn’t a tech stock, isn’t a growth stock, isn’t in AI, etc., so you may wonder why I am still holding onto any of it. Berkshire is a stock I hold onto when I am not sure what else to invest in. Because I always feel confident, that it will outpace the rate of inflation, and will likely be in the top half of my portfolio. I think of Berkshire almost as a high-yield bond.

In total, I realized about 6% of my portfolio. Sold out of Costco a bit, Disney a bit, and half of my Berkshire, and I moved into Ferrari more and Block more.

Ferrari now makes up 15% of my portfolio, which is about where I want it. In terms of % of portfolio, here is what my portfolio looks like.

Costco (20%)

Microsoft (15%)

Ferrari (15%)

Disney (14%)

Block (11%)

TQQQ (11%)

Apple (9%)

Berkshire (5%)

I think this is the most positions I have ever had in my portfolio, but as you can see, I am still pretty concentrated. Out of these eight stocks, Block is the weakest in the market, which I do not understand. Everything about the company screams buy, and I feel like I am missing something, but no matter, I shall continue my Icarian flight until Block kills me or yields amazing profits.