Israel-Hamas
This will probably be a little shorter, because I do not think there is a ton to say, this Israel vs. Hamas war is truly horrific. Every time something like this happens, it reminds me how much farther we have to go as a species. What I am about to say also sounds a little sadistic, this event does not matter a ton for the stock market.
The biggest possibility is that this descends into a total Middle-East war. I do not think it is likely Israel will declare war on Iran right now, but if any more information comes out about Iran killing Israelis or anything like that, Israel will declare war on Iran. If that does not happen, if a greater Middle-East war is avoided, and just Gaza is continually blockaded and bombarded you do not have to pull any money out. Again, I know it is awful to think about, but the truly disgusting amount of human suffering that is taking place as I type this has little impact on your portfolio.
The second possibility is that oil prices skyrocket. Oil prices have fallen about 10% in the past nine days. More violence and war in the Middle East will likely cause these prices to rise. However, I am not super worried about prices rising too high. If they did get too steep that would put more inflationary pressures on the world, which would not be great. However, I am not too worried, I know prices will rise, they have to, but they will not stay high.
The third possibility, and this one I think will happen, is that an air of uncertainty will grip the market. Many people are drawing comparisons to the Russia-Ukraine war, and I think that is fair. The market absorbed that news fairly quickly, but the war added to the general air of fear in the market. I think something similar will happen with this war, especially as Israel becomes increasingly violent.
Frankly, the market has already absorbed this news pretty well. Oil prices have not surged, the VIX has not surged, and the markets are flat. If you were just looking at the graphs, you would assume that this was just a normal Monday. However, we all know this to be a unique day.
I am not usually shy with my opinions on anything, but on this, I will hold my silence. I do have an opinion, but frankly, this is such a complex issue I do not believe that I know what I am talking about. I am neither Jewish, nor Muslim, and I am definitely not Palestinian. I am just an Episcopalian cracker who does not understand what is happening. I will try and educate myself over the next couple of days. However, I can tell you as a human that this is absolutely heartbreaking. There does not seem to be any group that is free of evil, and everyone seems to be feeding into that which they fear.
