Pax Romana Capital

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Let’s Talk About Costco

Costco is one of my favorite stocks, and if you talk to most smart people, they will tell you that Costco is one of their favorites. Previously, I have talked about why I love Costco: an incredible business model, hyper-loyal customers, and leadership to die for, but now is a chance to talk about Costco finally taking a hit. I will explain what happened to Costco today and what you should do.

Costco’s earnings caused the stock to plummet, leaving the stock down 8% today but up 12% year to date. This drop happened because of a revenue miss. Costco was predicted to have $59.1 billion in revenue but came in instead with $58.44 billion in revenue. All the other important metrics, profit, net income, same-store sales growth, EPS, etc., were all great, but the revenue miss was impactful because it was surprising.

But really, the revenue miss was not what caused the stock to shed 8% of its value. What caused Costco to shed 8% of its value was the comparative success of Target’s recent earnings call, uncertainty over membership price hikes, and how expensive the company is. First, Target is one of Costco’s competitors. Even though there is no real competitor for Costco, if you had to pick a few, Target would probably be in the group. In the minds of many investors, if Target is winning and Costco is not, then Costco must be doing something wrong. This is a foolish concept and is an excuse from investors looking to sell. Second, investors were looking for Costco to hike their membership prices. Memberships are what power Costco and are what make Costco unique. The idea of having a retail store you have to have a membership to get into sounds insane, but it works so well. Investors were looking for Costco to hike their membership prices as it has been a while, and all signs point to current and future Costco members being more than willing to adapt to an increase in price. The hike did not happen, so overly cautious investors left. Finally, Costco’s P/E ratio is ludicrous.

Costco is a stock market darling. As I said, most smart people own Costco stock, and most people trying to be smart people own Costco stock. When you have a company that can do no wrong, the price continues to float upwards at a pace that exceeds earnings growth, leaving you with a P/E ratio of 60. When you have a P/E so high, everything is riskier. The higher your P/E, the more intense the movements of the stock, typically. These volatile shifts are common around earnings and can/will exacerbate other factors. Basically, the higher a stock’s P/E, the more scared investors are. The more scared investors are, the more likely they are to blanch and run for the hills at mediocre earnings.

So, here is the part where I tell you what to do, but it is not financial advice. Hold or buy Costco. If you have been waiting a while for an opportunity to buy, you were just handed it. If you were waiting for an opportunity to sell, this is definitely not it. If you were waiting for a chance to hold the stock, you keep doing what you’re doing. Believe me, in time, probably a little amount of time, Costco will be plodding its way up in your portfolio. Every day, you will look at Costco and see a little green arrow next to the ticker, and it will say (+0.70%) or (+1.14%), and you will be glad I told you to hold. Seriously, Costco is an excellent company, and I implore you to never sell, especially for such overexaggerated bad news.