A Very Roman Revolt

Okay, I wrote a ton on the Russian revolt by Prigozhin. I left my dorm to eat lunch, take a break from writing and come back refreshed. As I’m eating my crepe (which was delicious) I look down at my phone and see that Prigozhin has negotiated a sort of peace deal with Putin. I’ll leave what I wrote below, I hadn’t quite finished writing and was about to write my conclusion, but I guess not now. None of the possibilities I had thought of included a peace treaty. BECAUSE THAT’S INSANE. How do you go back from launching a military coup, you don’t. There is very little information on this supposed treaty, but apparently, Prigozhin received many concessions, including the likely firing of Sergei Shoigu the Russian Minister of Defense. But let’s back up.

Prigozhin is the leader of the Wagner group, a Russian mercenary group that has fought conflicts all over the world. They have waged brutal wars in Africa, the Middle East, South America, and now Ukraine. Over the past couple of years, they have recruited a lot of top talent away from the Russian military with high salaries, little corruption, and a purpose. They have been the only Russian group to make any progress at all in Ukraine taking Bhakmut, a major Ukranian city. However, Prigozhin has routinely complained about the Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu and blamed him and other top officials throughout the war for many different issues. On Friday, the Wagner group claimed that there had been missile strikes against their rear guard by the Russian military, although no independent source was able to verify this. Sort of like a Marco Polo Bridge incident. Prigozhin went on Telegram, the Russian Facebook, and blamed top Russian officials for the entire war. He said that they had become greedy and attacked Ukraine un-prompted. He said that their greed had caused this failure and that they had tricked Putin into this invasion. He proclaimed that he would go on a march for justice and destroy any opposition. He declared war. Then he took a town, typically something that you can’t walk back. He encountered little resistance and it looked like a real fight was about to occur between Putin and Prigozhin over the future of the country. Tanks were rolling down the streets of Moscow, and it looked like stuff was about to get real. Then, as I was eating my crepe I saw CNBC report that a peace treaty had been reached.

The contents of this peace treaty are not available to the public, but apparently, Prigozhin received many concessions. If I had to guess, Shoigu was fired, and the keys to the kingdom have been offered to Prigozhin three years from now when Putin steps down. As for the Ukraine war, it’s over. He has popped the bubble. A treaty will be reached very soon. I still just don’t understand how Putin is letting this slide, or how Prigozhin thinks he will be safe. Putin is a snake, why would you turn your back on him and walk away? The only possible answer is that Prigozhin has been given Russia, promised the presidency in a year or two. But still, this boggles the mind. This country is falling apart, and it’s going to be interesting to see how they continue to function. According to the WSJ, the prison system has begun breaking down with guards not showing up. It is amazing to me how such a proud country, which has existed for 1200 years and has been populated with great thinkers, generals, and scientists could be so mismanaged.

I’m going to guess on Monday when the market opens that people are also going to be confused. However, you should buy everything that has been hampered by this war. Grain companies wouldn’t be awful if those even exist on the market. I expect these sanctions on Russia will continue for a while though, so even though the war is expected to end soon, the effects will be long-lasting. Anyways, my predictions I wrote four hours ago are below, you can read and make fun of them :(.

My favorite civilization, the one I think displayed the most ingenuity and creativity, and I highlight the most: The Romans. In the latter parts of their rule, once they had conquered the world and had no enemies on the outside, they created their own on the inside. Often, a hyper-powerful general like Sulla or the most famous, Caesar would take their army and conquer the city. They would appease the masses, and the Senate would be rendered powerless. Something very similar to that is happening right now in Russia, the only difference is that they very much still have enemies on the outside, with that whole war they’re fighting. A general is driving his powerful army back to the capital, claiming that the Russian oligarchy has abandoned the common man and that he can fix it. The implications are so incredibly varied, let’s run through the possibilities.

Possibility 1: The Russian military crumbles in front of The Russian General Prigozhin. Honestly, this is a very real possibility. Wagner, Prigozhin’s private army planned this out very well. They’ve already taken the Russian city Rostov, and are continuing their march to Moscow. They have encountered very little resistance, even when encountering checkpoints. As the Atlantic pointed out, “Nobody seems to want to die for Putin.” This is a full-scale Civil War and it could be possible that Putin has run out of supporters. He has long ruled via fear, but it’s possible that now he’s being openly threatened and challenged for supremacy he will lose that control. His yes-men top generals could break completely and he could be left in a deserted palace to await his fate, another Roman throwback. Prigozhin has so far run this Ukranian war better than any other Roman general putting his military acumen on display and I think it is entirely possible he could take this country in a week. He has planned this so far dazzlingly, whether he is working with the Ukrainians, KGB, or America, he has worked with vicious efficiency. Moscow is being protected in Operation Fortress, top generals who would likely be killed upon capture are holing up in Moscow behind their walls. Prigozhin could be ruling Russia in two weeks, and a Telegram account (Russia’s Facebook) connected to Prigozhin declared that it was time for a new president. If Prigozhin annihilates the Russian government and establishes himself as the new head of Russia he will most likely pull out of Ukraine and hand captured territory back over. So far in his recent rhetoric, he has been relatively kind to the Ukrainians laying all of the blame on a corrupt Russian government. He has said that the Ukranians were provoked and that greedy oligarchs began the war, so he would likely pull out and begin focusing on cleaning from within. However, whether a win is still up in the air, it could go either way.

The other option is that Putin destroys his country trying to end this revolt. Wagner only has 25,000 soldiers (as of right now) and no nuclear weapons. Putin does have nuclear weapons and he is scared. It is not outside of the realm of possibility for Putin to nuke his town to eradicate this threat. His best option is a quick end. Prigozhin will win if the Civil War is drawn out. Right now Putin looks scared, he is hiding in his fort while Prigozhin is out marauding around and winning the hearts of soldiers. Putin has to stop this now. He will start panicking once the soldiers start circling Moscow or if entire bases start defecting. He may pull a Czar Alexander I strategy and just burn the country to the ground. The options are endless, but it seems as if he will just wait in Moscow and hope they break on the walls like water on rocks. It appears as if he is trapped by indecision, it would be fascinating to have a conversation with him right now. The final option is that he wins.

Putin may win, although I believe that is unlikely, it is possible. He may assassinate Prigozhin, or maybe Wagner's troops will realize they don’t want to fight a revolution. Bases may not immediately gravitate to Prigozhin’s side, and as I mentioned earlier powerful generals have been aligning with Putin. In this case, Wagner will be disbanded, but Putin is too desperate to execute them or even imprison most of them. He needs the manpower desperately and would likely incorporate them into different parts of the army. The war would continue in Ukraine’s favor, likely even more so as the Russian army would be lacking Prigozhin’s expertise. However, I don’t need to write about this. Putin will lose. His head will be hanging in two weeks, and he will be replaced by a man more competent, more sadistic, and more savage.