A Quick Paramount Stop, Rate Cut Prediction, Poking at Apple Again, and Nvidia Earnings Prediction
During my last week, I have covered Apple quite a bit, and my move to ServiceNow (the goat). I have been almost solely focused with what to do with the 9% of my portfolio Apple used to hold, and some major news has slipped my eye. Today, we will chat about Paramount’s UNENDING saga, the Fed’s likely moves from here, Nvidia earnings in about 20 hours, and then I will dunk on Apple again :(, as I have become want to do as of late. Becoming so emotionally invested in the ups and downs of a stock is an objectively poor habit that I find myself slipping in far too often, but being emotional is the curse of a 16-year-old.
I kept wanting to write about this, and I kept not caring enough. I still do not care, but I feel a bit obligated. In the past week, Paramount broke their contract with Skydance to negotiate with a rich dude who wanted to buy them for more money, investors loved it, but Skydance threatened to sue, the rich dude pulled back, and investors no longer were quite so happy.
Paramount is a joke of a company led by small-minded people with an unending, masochist desire to harm themselves. The leadership of this company is so short-sided and completely unwilling to see the bigger picture or think analytically. This company is a case study in failure. I want Shari Redstone to change her mind and decide to hold on to the company because it would give me great pleasure to see a boat of idiots sink themselves on the rocks. I cannot stand this company, and unless they do something really stupid that I find hilarious, I will not cover this travesty anymore.
Now, on to some news that affects anything. People are being too aggressive with their rate-cut bets. The market is betting on two 25 bps moves with a 50 bps move in December. I would instead expect two 25bps cuts at 3/3 meetings. I think The Fed will gradually climb down from the cliff, not daring to leap too far into the fog. The dollar will be stronger for longer, and in my opinion, the economy will be better. A Fed that is slowly pulling interest rates back is a safer America.
Too much lurching this way and that, and the apple cart is upset. If you are invested in the right companies, you do not need interest rates to be lower for the bet to be a good one *cough cough* Bank of America. A calmer America means a calmer stock market, which is good. Rates will slowly come down, and do not let anyone tell you that is a bad thing for the overall stock market.
Nvidia earnings are tomorrow afternoon, and I know I said that I would give a prediction, but I cannot honestly tell you that I can call Nvidia’s earnings. I feel confident that they will beat estimates, but I do not feel confident that they will beat them by as much as they usually do. I mean, they have to slow down, they just have to, but I do not know, they have proved me wrong plenty. I am predicting a soft beat, which means the stock goes down, but the market remains slightly down/stable.
Not to continue dunking on Apple, but I am writing again about my worries. Their iPhone 16 AI will “help users write emails and create images” (WSJ). That sucks. ChatGPT can do that right now, and you do not have to drop a band on a new phone. That update sucks, the lack of innovation sucks, and I will be extremely disappointed if that is their actual pick.
I think that is most of the major news, but please email me if you see anything I am missing. Thanks, and Tim Cook, if you are reading this, plz drop a better update.
