Ukraine

I actually probably should have already talked about this, I don’t know it just felt like everyone else already talks about it so much, however, I shall talk about it now because nothing else comes to mind :). So, the Ukraine war, and the impact it will have on the global economy. Putin is a depraved animal, motivated by the basic emotions and needs of a chimp. Survival, fear, and anger. The Russian “Empire” has collapsed, his influence eroding, outdone by his supposed ally China. He is grabbing at the fraying ends of his robes as they disintegrate. Russia is a weak country, led by a weak man who will not and cannot make the necessary changes to save a country hollowed out by greed. I say all of this to point out that he has no hope of a future, and while his brain is likely steroid-addled he always searches for survival. This is why he must be panicking, every single dictator in the history of the world has launched an unprompted war of aggression on a smaller country when they start panicking. It’s just something they do. His back is to the wall and he will do anything in the interest of survival. His death is imminent if he does not win. He has tried to control the country, but it will consume him if he continues on this path. He will do anything to win. He’s like a three-year-old in a couple of different ways. First: he is not a tall guy and is obviously a lil’ insecure about that. Second: he is stupid. Due to this second fact, he will not win this war. The best he can possibly hope for is to keep the regions he annexed back in 2014. He simply cannot keep throwing men at this problem, he simply just doesn’t have the resources. Eventually, he is going to realize and understand this inevitable conclusion. The question then becomes, what does he do after? He will either pass beneath the yoke and bend to peace talks in which he will declare victory and be killed later by his own oligarch supporters. Or he will start using unconventional weapons, I believe that he already would have started using these weapons were it not for China. China controls Russia completely, without them, Putin's head would already be off. They are the only economic outlet of Russia aside from India and could squash the entire country without moving a soldier. If they allow it, Putin will destroy attempt to destroy Ukraine and therefore destroy the world. Fortunately, they are smart enough to not let him, and Putin is smart enough to ask for permission. That leaves only one possible conclusion, the Ukrainians will break the Russians on the battlefield and the Russians will break Putin at home. They are a people who have been abused by the ruling class since 862 AD they have grown used to this, but once they snap it is like watching a furious storm build.

If Russia had any economists that Putin hadn’t personally picked, I’m sure they would tell him that he has destroyed their economy. Europe has realized its dependence on him and has advanced past the notion that it could continue to live on Russian oil. They have tripled their progression towards clean energy and as the former largest importer of Russian oil, that’s not great for them. Basically, Russia has alienated the entire European continent as Ukrainian immigrants flow in every day professing disgusting stories of Russian insolence and despotism. Those wounds will take a long time to heal, particularly from a country that has for so long been at odds with much of Europe. Unlike Germany which quickly assimilated back into European society post-WW2 despite its hideous crimes, Russia has so long lacked allies in Europe and will find it nearly impossible to re-enter that society without major reforms, and the likely death of Putin. Now, I should probably talk about actual economics/stocks.

Keep buying defense. America has TWO of the largest air forces in the world, held by the Air Force branch and the Navy branch. We have bases across the entire world and a society+government predicated on war, defense, and security. We will never stop spending money on defense. Even when we add 8 billion dollars to defense over the next three years instead of 9 quadrillion, idiots like Lindsey Graham lose their minds. And he is not alone, a strong defense has long been the center of America. The Greeks had the arts and sciences, The Chinese had architecture and philosophy, and The Romans had engineering and war (to grossly oversimplify.) America like these other great civilizations which it can never hope to match will likely not change in its ways, defense is our thing. Buy defense ETFs and bet on our countri’s ability to always carry the bigger stick.