Pax Romana Capital

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Market Crash

“Rising interest rates and historically high stock valuations provided the backdrop to wipeouts in 1929, 1973, 1987, and 2007.” That was from the Wall Street Journal today, in an article about Michael Burry, his fame, and his bets against the market. Despite all the optimism not even a month ago, and without any significant change at all, the vibe has shifted over the past couple of days. Even though I still feel extremely optimistic, for others it feels like the vibe has shifted to a much more insecure and fearful feeling. People are starting to get worried that the Fed has gone too far, and that these rates will cause some wipeout. Or their anxiety isn’t even based off of one reason, they’re just afraid of something in the shadows. Here is why they shouldn’t be, and you should be buying.

First, if you sold everything and started buying bonds or cash equivalents every time someone (even really smart people) started panicking you wouldn’t have any money. You have to wade through fear to make money. People are freaking out, and you have to remember that it just takes one good week for this to all flip. You can’t just listen to the idiots on CNBC who turn with the wind. You have to stay with the fundamentals and look at the overall economy. From there you can make calls to companies. Looking at economic data, I am nowhere near being worried about a recession or a wipeout. I feel extremely confident about the direction of the economy, Powell’s ability to land the plane, and the global economic climate. While China is slowing, they are not cratering. A check like this could be beneficial to their economy in the long run, and growth remains solid in every other part of the world. The Ukraine/Russia war has had little impact on the American stock market (except for the massive defense companies) and the American political structure has actually been decent (aside from a couple of hiccups).

Frankly, crazy stuff is always happening. In Christmas of 2018, the S&P fell into a bear market inexplicably, also I believe in 2018, Trump almost invaded Iran. There has never been a calm month in the stock market, and there never will be. Espescially in this age of X (Twitter) and the lowest IQ individuals on the planet that inhabit it, there will always be a calamity. Now, this isn’t to say that nothing is happening. The Fed has raised rates to the highest they’ve been in 22 years, one of the biggest (former) world powers is invading its neighbor, and the second-biggest economy in the world has been taking a pounding. But you have to stick to your fundamentals, be brave, and not be emotional about your money.

Let’s say hypothetically that over the next week, everything implodes. Goldman goes under due to massive embezzlement, and everyone loses their money. There is no way to foresee a disaster of that proportion, and attempting to do will cost you dearly. In the case of this implosion, you just have to jump back in. Buy everything at a discount, and roll with it. What I’m trying to say is that getting in and out of individual stocks is a good idea, getting out of the entire market because you think a crash is coming is stupid. Especially if you’re basing this conclusion on TV personalities whose entire careers are founded on yelling the loudest.

If you do lose all your money, you can stay with me. We’ll play Call of Duty and eat brownies my mom made.