A little under 11 months ago, Birkenstock was listed on the NYSE. Their time is already over.

     Birkenstock is actively exemplifying the fashion cycle. I have already covered this a few times, but since investors continue to fall for it, I will explain once more.

     Birkenstock products were and are everywhere among my age demographics. They are incredibly comfortable, look pretty good, and are not wildly expensive, but they are also expensive enough. They fit well into the hyper-casual movement that has sprung up.

     Because they were selling more shoes than ever, Birkenstock did what you should do when making money as a fashion company. You file for an IPO, you wildly overproduce, and you release a new line that looks moderately different, but not too different. Now, as was destined, Birkenstock is doing not too well.

     In their most recent quarter, profit margins fell, their sales rose below analyst expectations, revenue grew by 19% y/y (less than analyst expectations), and net profit fell short. Their numbers are beginning to lag slightly on expectations, and very shortly, they will blow up.

     Once something is cool, it dies because it is no longer cool. Once all the middle-aged moms start wearing them (no offense mom), high schoolers and college students will find them less appealing. These two groups are what spurred this Birkenstock explosion, and when they leave, the brand will fall.

     The only companies that can avoid this predictable cycle have something that differentiates them and makes it possible for them to maintain their quick flashes in popular culture. Ferrari is a good example of a brand that can maintain popularity through differentiation. Ferrari is Ferrari because they make 10,000 cars a year. There must be some level of exclusivity that makes a brand so enticing. Obviously, there is money to be made if everybody loves your brand and buys it up every day, but those brands are cheap and come and pass like clouds in the sky: Gucci, Champion, Gap, and now Birkenstock.

     Because I have a few words left, let us talk about Tesla and my number one enemy on this planet, the ultimate master of the dorky cool guy to depraved, egotistical, childish transformation: Welcome to the stage, Elon Musk.

     Elon Musk runs Tesla (down 8% Friday, 16% YTD) and xAI. It was reported in the Wall Street Journal (goated) that these companies are discussing a revenue sharing deal, where xAI would get a portion of Tesla's revenue in exchange for Tesla receiving access to xAI’s tech. This would track, as Elon wanted Tesla to drop $5 billy into xAI a few months back. Elon denied this report, as he and The Journal have quite a bit of beef, but I think I know who I believe. Whether this move goes through or not, Tesla still sucks. I have already talked about this so many times, but in short, Elon is absolutely grasping at straws. A month and two days from now, Tesla is supposed to unveil their fully self-driving cars. There is a non-zero chance that gets pushed off again, and there is definitely a non-zero chance that fully self-driving Teslas never see the road. There is too much competition, and Elon has to start putting in actual work, but he is not going to do that, so he is making random crap up.

     I really wish he was less of a tool because his companies do so much cool stuff. Whether he is cool or not, you need to stay away from Tesla. If SpaceX goes public though, I would not be quite as mad at you for investing.