Pax Romana Capital

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Nvidia and China

It looks like a bubble. It smells like a bubble. Nvidia is a bubble. I know how dangerous it is to bet against Nvidia but come on. HOW MUCH FURTHER UP IS THE STOCK GOING TO GO?? If you have been holding Nvidia for a long time, it can be difficult to sell. Take my grandfather for instance. His Nvidia stock is up 1,200%, but he just sold off some of his position. My grandfather is the best investor I know because he is always re-analyzing his positions. I want you to look at Nvidia right now and tell me how much further the ceiling will go. How much further can it go? And how much risk are you willing to take? Because each dollar Nvidia increases is matched equally by risk. Let me put it this way: everyone right now is amazed by Nvidia, and everyone who owns Nvidia feels like the smartest person alive. Then some are looking to stay in for a week, a month, just to cash in. If you are doing it well, you should have long-term priorities when you are investing. People buying Nvidia right now are more likely than not going in for quick money because they keep watching the number tick up. You do not want to be in bed with those people. You are buying a house built on quicksand. Now, you do not have to sell out entirely, and if you genuinely believe in the company, you can keep riding this roller coaster, but if this money means something to you, I would leave. But you were smart enough to invest in Nvidia, and I did not, so you may just be smarter than I am.

China is trying to fix its stock market, and it will not work. China is freaking out, I believe. China will not implode and melt down, but it will stop growing, and from China’s point of view, that cannot happen. If China stops growing, it loses massive amounts of influence. China has been taking steps to fix this issue. China’s head regulator stepped down, state-backed funds have purchased 70 billion Yuan in the market, and they are still panicking. Right now, investors are panicking because they have eyes. The entire country is slowing down and mayybeee pulling a Japan. The home market is imploding at 0.1x speed. And the Chinese government is panicking. So, what is the CCP going to do? The CCP will do what they always do: throw massive amounts of money at the problem and try and beat it away. The problem is that the CCP’s usual strategy will not work: the problem is too massive. It would take 200 billion Yuan to stabilize the market, at least. And that’s not even where their money should be going. China has to stabilize its real-estate market. I am pretty sure they are propping up their stock market out of embarrassment, which is sad.

Nvidia and China are similar to me. In my opinion, Nvidia is China a couple of years ago. Nvidia is not as artificially inflated as China was, but there is too much momentum, and I am just waiting for the floor to crack.