TikTok, BYE BYE
Guess who just got a 34 on their ACT (1520 on SAT)????? This guy did. Yipeeeeee. Such a weight off my shoulders, but now that I am done with that, I am planning to re-double my efforts on my sucky podcast and make it not quite as bad. I'm thinking about refocusing it on Tottenham, the best club in the world, but we'll see. Also, before I start, I do not use TikTok. Frankly, I have always looked down on the app as a dystopian hellscape of dopamine farming, espescially after reading Fahrenheit 451, however, even I can recognize how great of a business it is.
After being humiliated on The Hill in hearings, our representatives have stealthily been working on a bill that would ban ByteDance from owning TikTok/ban TikTok altogether from the US. Somehow, ByteDance did not know about this policy, which is surprising. Basically, this bill would force ByteDance to sell the platform to a non-Chinese company, or the US would just ban it outright. President Biden said he would sign it if the bill "made it to his desk." The Bill already got through the House. Donald Trump said he had no opinion, which is the equivalent of giving his blessing for the Bill. So, all that is left is the United States Senate. I could see the Bill getting tripped up, but I do not think it will. I would put the odds at 80/20 for the bill passing. Although, it will be months before we know, as The Senate does not move particularly fast. Assuming the TikTok ban/forced divestment is upheld in the courts and is passed into law, who benefits from this TikTok collapse, and who will buy TikTok, if anyone?
The biggest winners will be Meta, YouTube, and X. If the app is banned, these companies will scoop up former customers, with Meta likely a big winner. Instagram Reels are already massively popular with my age group, which may shock you. People my age obviously still use TikTok, but the vibe I have gotten is that Instagram Reels are like the healthy alternative. Instagram Reels are really stupid and fun. TikTok is also fun, but it also feels like your brain is melting when you're using the app, Instagram Reels are just dumb. If you checked on Instagram Reels two years ago, you would have seen quite a bit of recycled TikToks and generally, very low-effort content, but Reels have grown substantially, and Meta's algorithm has as well. I detest Meta, but they will likely replace the short-form content farm and be seen as the healthy alternative.
Another big winner will be all of TV. People my age scroll on TikTok for hours upon hours, and their need for entertainment is not going to vanish if/when TikTok is banned, instead, they are going to flock to two options: YouTube and streaming. Obviously, TikTok consumers will disperse elsewhere, but they will mostly go to YouTube and streaming. YouTube is by far the most popular social media app. Everyone uses YouTube, and TikTok has billions upon billions of hours of watch time away from YouTube. The same is true for streaming. The same complaint I hear time and time again from people my age is, "Nothing on TV is entertaining." They do not see anything on TV more enticing than TikTok, so they scroll. Streaming services will pick up many younger users after TikTok is banned/sold.
Now, the question is, will anyone buy the app? The answer is probably no. If I had to bet on it, I would guess that TikTok is banned instead of being sold. The Chinese Communist Party owns a stake in TikTok, and board seats in the company, and has to approve of any sale that they would strongly object to, and in my opinion, would probably block. On top of that, finding a suitor likely will not be impossible, but you have to rule out almost all Big Tech. Assuming that the FTC continues on its (frankly justified) warpath against Big Tech, those trillion-dollar corporations will probably not be allowed to buy TikTok for fears of overreach and monopolization if it's not going to be Big Tech and probably not any ultra-large corporation, that leaves mostly private investors. Those private investors would have to get approved by both the Chinese Communist Party and the US Government, as well as the FTC, along with a host of other issues about actually buying the company. In my opinion, TikTok is going to be nearly impossible to sell.
Even if TikTok miraculously is sold to an American company, the app's downward spiral will likely continue. Meta's Instagram overtook TikTok for downloads last year, and TikTok lost some of its user base. I would assume that the app's algorithm would degrade or would at least fail to adapt to changes.
In my opinion, TikTok will be banned, and American companies will benefit wildly, especially those at the top (as always).
