Don’t Time The Market
One of the first things a stock market “guru” or a stock introduction website will tell you, is that the stock market has always gone up. If you look over a long enough period, the market has never stayed down entirely. Unfortunately, those who dive into shorting the entire market with their 401k’s have forgotten this lesson. YOU ARE NOT MICHAEL BURRY, YOU HAVE NOT FOUND THE SECRET CODE THAT NOBODY ELSE HAS FOUND. Don’t try and time the market. There are about ten days out of the year that make up about half or more of your portfolio gains for the year. If you miss out on any of those gains, or even worse you have sunk a large amount of capital into betting against the market on one of those days, you will cripple your portfolio. You have to remember that the most powerful people in the world are in the stock market. They have attached their fortunes to the market, and its success. You will not beat them, ride on their coattails. These are people you will never interact with or come within a breath of, they will always have more information than you will have. They will never let the market fall for an extended period of time, and if it does (08) they will gobble up shares of undervalued companies. Speaking of undervalued, even though I know this is way off-topic, DIS is a major buy right now. It right now is the lowest it has been in nine years, since December of 2014. On top of that, the company is being led by one of the most outstanding corporate leaders of the 21st century, and nothing has changed. So that the company had a few fewer subscribers, revenue is literally up 13% y/y. I’m calling my shot now, DIS will be up to $120 at least by this time next year. It literally is inconceivable to me that people are not pouncing on the stock, I have owned DIS since 2019, I bought it at $112. DIS taught me many lessons, about pride, holding too long, and knowing when to fold. I was there when it was at $180 and I’m here when it’s at $90. No news has come out in the past four years that could possibly convince me that DIS is not a stock to hold. I wouldn’t buy calls or anything, because people are stupid and the stock will likely be beaten down a little more. Just buy it, and wait a year or so. This one has been a little shorter, because the lesson is simple, and comes in two parts. First, don’t time the market, just hold unless you find information that makes you change your mind about the company. Second, Disney is an excellent example of the first lesson. People have changed their minds about the company for inexplicable reasons, nothing about the company has changed since when the price was $180. Subscriber numbers as a whole are useless anyway. Buy Disney.
